Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1669

   Mesoscale Discussion 1669
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of north TX into the ArkLaTex region

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 171900Z - 172100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated damaging wind are possible
   through late afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have intensified this afternoon across northeast
   TX, in the vicinity of a surface boundary and to the south of a
   southeastward-moving MCV across central OK. Strong heating of a
   richly moist airmass has resulted in MLCAPE increasing to 1500-3000
   J/kg, to the south of the ongoing convection and related cloud
   shield. Low/midlevel flow is weak across the region, but large PW
   and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential for
   localized downbursts. The strongest storms may briefly be capable of
   producing small to marginally severe hail as well. Outflow
   consolidation could eventually result in some loosely organized
   storm clustering, though this possibility remains rather uncertain.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 07/17/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32239803 32819749 33619598 33859359 33459322 32979330
               32609369 32139519 31819666 31599754 32239803