Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1668

   Mesoscale Discussion 1668
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0912 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

   Areas affected...south-central/southeast ND and
   north-central/northeast SD

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499...

   Valid 200212Z - 200345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts will continue spreading
   eastward across parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499. Some severe
   risk may extend eastward out of the watch, and convective trends are
   being monitored.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KBIS indicates some signs of
   a consolidating cold pool as storms continue spreading eastward
   across south-central ND and north-central SD. In the near-term,
   isolated severe hail and locally damaging gusts are the primary
   concerns with an evolving cluster and splitting cells. The ABR 00Z
   sounding sampled steep midlevel lapse rates atop a warm and very
   moist PBL (middle 70s dewpoints), resulting in a strongly unstable
   downstream air mass. This, combined with around 50 kt of effective
   shear oriented perpendicular to the evolving gust front, could
   support a continued risk of severe wind gusts east of Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch 499. However, some lingering low-level inhibition
   in the ABR sounding and a gradual increase in nocturnal static
   stability may temper the overall risk. Current thinking is that a
   downstream watch will not be needed, though convective trends are
   being monitored.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/20/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46709937 46839887 46819800 46649736 46369709 45829709
               45289727 44969780 44849852 44899950 45079994 45270025
               45580025 46709937 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN