Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1665

   Mesoscale Discussion 1665
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0956 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

   Areas affected...Lower Ohio River Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 170256Z - 170500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the
   lower Ohio River Valley through the late evening hours. Storms may
   pose a severe wind risk if more organized clusters can be
   established. Trends will be monitored for watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed along a sagging cold front
   across portions of northwest KY over the past hour, with additional
   thunderstorms expected to emerge in the coming hour or so as ascent
   associated with an upper wave across the upper Great Lakes glances
   the region. Very moist boundary conditions (dewpoints in the mid to
   upper 70s) have modulated the influence of nocturnal cooling with a
   relatively uninhibited and buoyant (around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE)
   air mass in place along/south of the front. While buoyancy profiles
   are somewhat meager due to 6.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, 30 knot
   mid-level flow is supporting adequate hodograph elongation for some
   storm organization. However, mean wind and deep-layer shear vectors
   oriented roughly along the boundary should favor upscale growth
   relatively quickly. It remains unclear whether thunderstorm coverage
   will be adequate for the development of one or more organized
   clusters/linear segments or if too many storms will limit the
   potential for organization due to destructive interference. Recent
   HRRR solutions hint that at least one segment may emerge across
   southeast MO into the lower OH river valley later tonight with an
   attendant severe wind threat. Trends will be monitored to see if
   this scenario can be realized and require watch issuance.

   ..Moore/Bunting.. 07/17/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...

   LAT...LON   36638903 36738958 37048975 37488963 37718910 37708837
               37938733 38248598 38418534 38508480 38408450 38058450
               37708465 37378511 37068597 36838678 36658761 36608807
               36638903