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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1665

Published Date and Time: 2026-07-19 18:50:00



Mesoscale Discussion 1665
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1665
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0548 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of NC and southern VA

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498...

   Valid 192248Z - 200015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind remains possible through early
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered storms are ongoing across parts of NC
   into far southern VA. With MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and large PW in
   place, occasionally vigorous updrafts and subsequent downdrafts will
   remain possible through early evening. However, the widely scattered
   storm coverage and lack of sustained storm clustering has limited
   coverage of the damaging-wind threat thus far. 

   The most favorable effective shear (25-35 kt) resides across
   southern VA into northeast NC, though storms have remained isolated
   across these areas. While coverage may remain rather sparse in this
   area, any new or ongoing cells may be able to persist through the
   early evening with a threat of localized damaging wind. Farther
   south, the weaker shear will continue to result in more of a pulse
   character to storm development/evolution, though the large PW will
   support potential for wet microbursts. 

   A gradual decrease in the severe wind threat is expected with time
   through the evening. However, nocturnal cooling/stabilization will
   be slow within the very moist environment, and a localized
   wind-damage threat may persist beyond the 00 UTC expiration time of
   WW 498.

   ..Dean.. 07/19/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34727575 34857882 34818003 35708044 36348057 36558057
               36778029 36817957 36717828 37127729 37327683 37297644
               37197612 36527580 35847559 35147564 34727575 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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