Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1663

   Mesoscale Discussion 1663
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0725 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

   Areas affected...Southwestern Kansas...Oklahoma Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551...

   Valid 170025Z - 170200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat will increase across western Kansas
   and the Oklahoma Panhandle over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...A weak mid-level disturbance appears to have topped the
   southern Rockies ridge and is now turning southeast toward the
   central High Plains. Over the last hour or so, scattered convection
   has grown upscale considerably over southeast CO within a weak
   low-level upslope flow regime. Precip shield/cold pool is expanding
   with this complex, and current trends suggest a maturing MCS may
   become more efficient in generating winds as the leading edge
   propagates into southwestern KS. With time this complex is expected
   to turn more southeast along the instability axis, but that will be
   later this evening.

   ..Darrow.. 07/17/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   38500195 38350101 36980074 36780171 37880215 38500195