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| Mesoscale Discussion 1662 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1662 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548... Valid 170019Z - 170215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548 continues. SUMMARY...Confidence is increasing in the potential for a corridor of wind damage across parts of far northeast Virginia into northern New Jersey. DISCUSSION...GOES IR imagery trends from the past 30-60 minutes show steady cloud-top cooling as a broken line of convection deepens from far northeast VA into southeast PA and NJ. Latest VWP observations and upper-air analyses show somewhat weaker mid to upper-level flow as compared to locations further north (where an organized MCS is ongoing), but mean wind and deep-layer shear vectors should favor upscale growth in the coming hour into a somewhat more cohesive line of storms. Regional terminal radar imagery already shows some degree of cold pool amalgamation, which supports this idea. RAP mesoanalysis indicates that the apex of a buoyancy ridge lies immediately downstream of the developing line, and deep-layer wind shear is still sufficient (around 25-35 knots) to support some degree of convective organization. Consequently, the potential for a line of thunderstorms capable of damaging to severe winds should increase over the next 1-2 hours as thunderstorms continue to intensify. ..Moore.. 07/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39797707 40067621 40337553 40537515 40657478 40677434 40497403 40237404 39917413 39667438 39387467 39147520 38927590 38737665 38717705 38737739 38797765 38837793 38947810 39167795 39427768 39697715 39797707 |
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