Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1658

   Mesoscale Discussion 1658
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1120 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

   Areas affected...Southern Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191620Z - 191815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms this afternoon will be capable of wind
   damage. A watch is possible early this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Low to upper 70s F dewpoints are in place from central
   Virginia into the Carolinas early this afternoon. Cloud debris in
   southern Virginia is slowly eroding and temperatures are generally
   in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Between the southward moving cold
   front, the Blue Ridge, and differential heating boundaries,
   scattered storm development appears likely over the next few hours.
   Damaging downburst winds will be possible with this activity as
   low-level lapse rates continue to steepen. Morning observed
   soundings indicate poor mid-level lapse rates and strong mid-level
   flow will diminish with southward extent. Even so, storm coverage
   and potential clustering will support enough of a severe threat that
   a watch is possible for parts of the region early this afternoon.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 07/19/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

   LAT...LON   37437761 37367675 36627579 35677568 35377620 35397692
               35507987 35728155 36178163 37198025 37248017 37437761 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH