Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1658

   Mesoscale Discussion 1658
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0434 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of southern New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 162134Z - 162300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A broken line of severe storms currently over eastern New
   York will continue eastward across southern New England into
   tonight. The primary concern is damaging straight-line winds, though
   a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KENX depicts an MCS with
   embedded/deep rotating updrafts tracking eastward across the Hudson
   Valley at around 40-50 kt. This line has been producing severe gusts
   (generally associated with embedded mesovorticies), and a couple
   tornadoes have also been noted. 

   Over the next few hours, this line will continue eastward across
   southern New England. Ahead of the line, earlier diurnal heating
   (lower 90s temperatures) of a moist boundary layer (upper 60s/lower
   70s dewpoints) should support its maintenance -- despite slightly
   weaker buoyancy with eastward extent. Additionally, around 40-50 kt
   of westerly deep-layer shear (per regional VWP) oriented
   perpendicular to the well-established gust front, and a developing
   low-level jet, should favor continued convective organization. The
   strong deep-layer shear (and favorable/increasing low-level
   hodograph curvature) should yield embedded supercells/mesovorticies
   capable of severe gusts (generally 65-75 mph) and perhaps a
   localized tornado threat. A watch will likely be issued in the next
   hour or so.

   ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/16/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   41507263 41807305 42967285 43727254 44197232 44407163
               44297088 44097026 43816986 42467002 41757013 41537053
               41427200 41507263