Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1654

   Mesoscale Discussion 1654
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0219 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

   Areas affected...Western North Carolina and Southern Virgina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161919Z - 162045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated damaging winds are possible
   this afternoon across portions of western North Carolina and into
   southern Virginia. Given the isolated and transient nature of
   thunderstorms in this environment, watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated cells and multi-cell clusters ongoing in
   western North Carolina and southern Virginia are in an environment
   characterized by large buoyancy, but little to no deep-layer wind
   shear, and steep low level lapse rates. Some of these storms could
   be capable of damaging straight-line winds from thunderstorm
   outflow, and there could be some local enhancement of thunderstorm
   winds from merging/interacting outflow. However, any occurrence of
   severe is expected to be isolated and brief, and weather watch
   issuance is unlikely at this time.

   ..Halbert/Squitieri/Hart.. 07/16/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...

   LAT...LON   36688111 36838053 36827989 36717923 36377886 35757886
               35397903 35257941 35158007 35148053 35218102 35408153
               35728176 36068173 36328165 36688111