Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1653

   Mesoscale Discussion 1653
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

   Areas affected...portions of central and eastern
   Virginia...southeast Maryland

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496...

   Valid 182058Z - 182200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk for
   damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail through early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Several clusters of severe thunderstorms continue along
   a confluence zone from central VA south across western NC at 2045z,
   and these storms will continue to move east across the watch area
   through early evening.  With strong instability and modest westerly
   deep-layer shear remaining in place, storms will continue to pose a
   severe risk over the next few hours. Damaging gusts remain the
   primary severe hazard, however isolated instances of large hail
   remain possible with the most intense storms.

   ..Bunting.. 07/18/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   39117768 38587690 38227642 38357526 38237487 37617521
               36787566 36327580 36347672 35797911 35908023 36238043
               36698030 37427971 37697940 39157800 39117768 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN