Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1652

   Mesoscale Discussion 1652
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0339 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Pennsylvania...central and
   southern New Jersey...eastern Maryland...Delaware

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 495...

   Valid 182039Z - 182215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 495 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will continue across the watch area
   and pose a risk for a couple tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...A composite warm front, reinforced by convective
   outflow, extends from central NJ into east-central PA at 2025z.
   Thunderstorms north of this boundary will likely slow any northward
   progress over the next few hours, with the greatest supercell
   potential along and south of the warm front across eastern MD,
   Delaware, and southern/central NJ. Enhanced low-level shear in the
   vicinity of the warm front remains supportive of low-level rotation
   and attendant tornado risk with any more discrete/persistent storm. 
   Strong instability/steep low-level lapse rates across the southern
   portion of the watch will contribute to the continued potential for
   damaging winds, especially as storms merge/evolve into clusters.
   Some tornado risk will exist as storm interactions occur given the
   magnitude of instability.

   ..Bunting.. 07/18/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   40037590 40347559 40407480 40297410 40187398 39967384
               39757383 39077426 38537468 38427548 38627584 38617619
               38487646 38657689 38987713 39117740 39347757 39507743
               39507696 39657621 40037590