Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1651

   Mesoscale Discussion 1651
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1202 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast MO into southwest IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 161702Z - 161830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Some damaging-wind threat could persist into this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A small bowing segment (with recent measured gusts of
   40-45 kt) has recently surged southward across east-central MO, with
   the intersection of this bowing segment and a separate outflow surge
   from the west resulting in an earlier possible brief tornado over
   Warren County, MO. The longevity and severity of this bowing segment
   into the afternoon is uncertain, given the presence of widespread
   rain and clouds immediately downstream. However, some threat for
   locally damaging wind could continue, especially if the bowing
   segment is able to persist farther southward, where somewhat
   stronger diurnal heating/destabilization (with MLCAPE increasing
   above 2000 J/kg) is underway across far southeast MO/southwest IL.
   Short-term watch issuance is uncertain, but will become possible if
   a more widespread damaging-wind threat becomes evident.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 07/16/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   38809146 38849059 38799008 38418929 37428878 36898941
               36879043 37329097 37619136 38809146