Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1647

   Mesoscale Discussion 1647
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0338 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

   Areas affected...North-central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 160838Z - 161115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage threat will likely continue over
   the next couple of hours across north-central Kansas. Although the
   threat should remain localized, weather watch issuance still could
   be needed if the cluster maintains intensity and expands in
   coverage.

   DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Dodge City
   shows a small convective cluster over north-central Kansas, just
   west and northwest of Russell, Kansas. This cluster is located to
   the west of a pocket of moderate instability, where the RAP has
   MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The storm cluster appears to
   be supported by a subtle shortwave trough moving through
   west-northwesterly mid-level flow. In addition to the instability,
   the RAP is showing 200 to 300 J/kg of MLCIN. This introduces
   uncertainty as to how long the cluster can persist, and how much
   wind can reach the surface. If the storms expand in coverage and
   remain at a similar intensity, as they move eastward across
   north-central Kansas early this morning, then weather watch issuance
   will need to be considered.

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/16/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   39519629 39789641 39949667 39979701 39839784 39469893
               39119956 38769970 38509960 38319926 38359840 38589750
               38799686 39099635 39519629