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Mesoscale Discussion 1645 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1645 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Areas affected...Lower Michigan and adjacent portions of Indiana and Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 160411Z - 160615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing ahead of an approaching MCV may pose a severe hail/wind threat heading into the early morning hours. Trends will be monitored for potential watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Convection across northern IN/southern MI within a warm advection branch ahead of an approaching MCV (currently over lower Lake Michigan) has shown signs of periodic intensification over the past 1-2 hours based on trends in GOES IR imagery and vertically integrated ice. Nocturnal cooling has been somewhat muted by high-quality low-level moisture already in place across northern IN into lower MI (dewpoints in the low 70s), resulting in only a weakly capped environment based on a modified 00 UTC DTX sounding. Despite somewhat poor hodograph structure above 4 km, around 40 knots of effective bulk shear should support some storm organization with any cells that can remain more discrete within the narrow warm advection regime. Consequently, a severe hail and wind risk may persist across lower MI for the next several hours. Convective trends - particularly storm mode - will continue to be monitored for the need for watch issuance later tonight. ..Moore/Thompson.. 07/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 41148477 41468498 41738524 41938561 42178575 42538554 42758506 42908445 42938406 42928372 42878329 42668290 42328280 41998290 41588322 41378353 41248394 41148477 |
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