Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1643

   Mesoscale Discussion 1643
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0937 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

   Areas affected...Central Illinois into central Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 160237Z - 160400Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A downstream watch across central Illinois into central
   Indiana is expected within the next hour as a severe MCS continues
   to push east/southeast.

   DISCUSSION...The southern end of a severe MCS continues to propagate
   to the southeast along and south of a diffuse baroclinic zone draped
   into eastern IL/central IN. Severe winds continue to be reported
   with this line over the past 30 minutes, and GOES IR imagery
   continues to show strong updraft pulses along the leading edge of
   the cold pool. High boundary-layer moisture content downstream into
   central IL/central IN (dewpoints in the upper 70s) will modulate the
   effects of nocturnal cooling/stabilization resulting in ample
   buoyancy (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) with limited inhibition for MCS
   maintenance. Consequently, the expectation is for the MCS to
   continue well into central IL/central IN with an attendant threat
   for severe winds, including the potential for signification severe
   winds (75+ mph).

   ..Moore/Thompson.. 07/16/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38738901 38808942 38938961 39178967 39408960 39628940
               39698912 39658877 39738806 40208745 40908670 40958599
               40838534 40528520 39838538 39288603 38918718 38758807
               38738901