Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1641

   Mesoscale Discussion 1641
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0655 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

   Areas affected...East-central Iowa into northwest Illinois

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 539...

   Valid 152355Z - 160130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 539
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A corridor of higher wind potential appears to be emerging
   across east-central Iowa into northwestern Illinois. High-res
   experimental guidance suggests wind gusts upwards of 80-90 mph and
   embedded circulations will be possible over the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Reflectivity and velocity data from KDVN shows a broad
   circulation developing across the IA/WI/IL tri-state region, which
   is believed a deepening MCV that is typically associated with a
   mature MCS. To the southwest, a bowing segment is becoming
   established across eastern IA. A diffuse baroclinic zone (denoted by
   temperature/dewpoints in the 90s and upper 70s respectively lies
   immediately downstream to the southeast of this emerging bow. This
   should provide a focus for propagation over the next few hours.
   Latest WoFS guidance and HRRR solutions have picked up on this trend
   and suggest significant severe wind gusts (including gusts upwards
   of 80-90 mph) are probable. Additionally, adequately strong (around
   30 knots) low-level shear is in place and should support embedded
   circulations - especially within any portions of the line that can
   become more north-south oriented. Portions of WW 539 have been added
   to tornado watch 541 to address this potential.

   ..Moore.. 07/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   41229186 41329189 41459157 41619126 41799092 42029069
               42169040 42319019 42519007 42658997 42708952 42638925
               42558914 42268912 41868915 41508930 41238954 41008988
               40919022 40909055 41229186