Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1638

   Mesoscale Discussion 1638
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0925 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

   Areas affected...north-central North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491...

   Valid 170225Z - 170400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and a brief tornado or two 
   continues across western portions of the watch area.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2:15Z, volumetric radar data indicates a
   supercell over southern Benson County moving at 325/20 kt. The storm
   has remained anchored to a boundary that extends to the
   south-southwest with a recent tornado report near Maddock. Latest
   objective analysis indicates 0-3-km CAPE as high as 150-175 J/kg
   along the boundary, and while low-level shear is not overly strong,
   the storm-boundary interaction will support a continued risk for a
   brief tornado or two for the next 1-2 hours.

   Despite echo tops approaching 65 kft at times, large hail has
   remained limited. However, given the persistent supercell
   structures, at least marginally severe hail will remain a threat.

   ..Mead.. 07/17/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47909996 48229997 48529960 48389878 47809862 47569874
               47499960 47909996 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN