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| Mesoscale Discussion 1638 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1638 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Areas affected...Central Iowa into northwest Illinois Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 539... Valid 152226Z - 160030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 539 continues. SUMMARY...A severe hail threat will persist for the next 1-2 hours across central to eastern IA, but a gradual transition to a predominant wind threat appears likely after 00 UTC based on recent convective trends. DISCUSSION...Imagery from KDMX over the past 30-60 minutes has shown gradual cold pool amalgamation of initially discrete supercells north of the Des Moines, IA area. New convection developing along the outflow will likely initially pose a large hail threat given sufficiently strong environmental wind shear (around 35 knots observed on the KDMX VWP). However, the mean westerly winds are mostly aligned with the outflow boundary, which will continue to foster upscale growth in the coming hours. How fast semi-discrete cells transition to a more organized MCS remains uncertain, but based on the aforementioned trends and recent HRRR solutions, this transition may occur by around 00 UTC as storms propagate to the east/southeast along a diffuse baroclinic zone towards northwest IL. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 40499194 41219367 41349415 41529435 41669437 41839427 42019381 42709196 42719155 42488875 42328857 41898857 41328872 40778915 40378979 40319041 40379102 40499194 |
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