Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1636

   Mesoscale Discussion 1636
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0654 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

   Areas affected...Idaho Panhandle into northwest Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 162354Z - 170200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts
   are possible with ongoing storms this evening. The limited areal
   extent of the threat is expected to preclude a watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated storms exhibiting splits and radar-identified
   three-body scatter spikes are ongoing as of 2345Z over portions of
   Lewis and Idaho Counties in ID into Sanders and Lincoln Counties in
   northwest MT. The trailing influence of a shortwave trough lifting
   into southern Alberta is likely contributing to this development
   amidst a steep lapse rate and moderately unstable environment.
   Objective analysis indicates the region resides within a belt of
   enhanced mid-level flow to the east of an upper low off the WA and
   OR coasts with 45-55 kt of effective bulk shear. That environment
   will remain supportive of high-based supercells with the primary
   hazard being large hail. Locally severe wind gusts will also be
   possible owing to strong evaporational cooling potential in the
   sub-cloud layer.

   ..Mead/Hart.. 07/16/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MSO...OTX...PDT...

   LAT...LON   45841665 47021664 48201604 48761506 48581402 47601411
               46411489 45611560 45491627 45841665 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN