Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1636

   Mesoscale Discussion 1636
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0350 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

   Areas affected...portions of southeastern Arizona

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152050Z - 152315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
   intensity this afternoon and evening across portions of southeastern
   Arizona.  The primary severe weather threat is expected to be
   damaging downburst thunderstorm winds.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have initiated over terrain-favored
   locations in southeastern Arizona over the past hour.  These storms
   are developing in a modestly unstable environment (MLCAPE of ~1000
   J/kg) with deeply mixed boundary layers.  Easterly midlevel flow is
   expected to slightly increase this evening (~20 knots), which may
   help storms propagate westward off the higher terrain.  These storms
   will primarily pose an isolated threat of damaging downburst winds.

   ..Jirak/Thompson.. 07/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31331107 31521151 32461139 33181113 33851082 34111032
               33840967 33350940 32440927 31730913 31330906 31321105
               31331107