Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1634

   Mesoscale Discussion 1634
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0321 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

   Areas affected...Western NY into north-central PA

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538...

   Valid 152021Z - 152145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Scattered damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two will
   remain possible through late afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...In advance of an MCV approaching eastern Lake Erie, a
   relatively long-lived supercell has recently intensified east of
   Buffalo, with other strong storms trailing to the southwest across
   western NY. A separate small cluster of storms (with a history of
   wind damage) is ongoing in closer proximity to a separate MCV moving
   across western PA. Modest enhancement of low/midlevel flow in
   advance of the MCVs remains evident in regional VWPs, which will
   continue to support organized convection through the remainder of
   the afternoon. Some upscale growth remains possible with time, which
   would potentially support an increase in damaging-wind potential
   (with at least localized gusts of 60-70 mph) downstream across
   western NY and north-central PA. However, even if some upscale
   growth occurs, a couple of embedded supercells will remain possible,
   with potential for a tornado or two and perhaps some hail.

   ..Dean.. 07/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   40887872 42207901 43357838 43627772 43727656 43767602
               42567611 41677639 41187671 40957791 40887872