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Mesoscale Discussion 1633 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1633 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Minnesota...Northern Wisconsin...and the Michigan Upper Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 152006Z - 152200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...As a cold front moves out of Minnesota, into Northwest Wisconsin, and eventually into the Upper Peninsula, thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to increase this afternoon and evening. While these storms will be capable of producing some damaging wind gusts and perhaps some 1.00 inch hail, watch issuance is not expected at this time given the isolated nature of severe occurrence. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have begun developing within a modestly unstable airmass across the Upper Peninsula/Northern Wisconsin into Eastern Minnesota. Thunderstorm activity will increase as a cold front moves southeastward out of Minnesota into Wisconsin, and deep layer shear magnitudes of 35-40 kts will support at least some isolated severe convection. Given relatively straight-line forecast hodographs and thin buoyancy profiles, isolated damaging wind gusts and hail are the primary hazards expected with any mature multicell clusters that develop. ..Halbert/Squitieri/Hart.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...MPX... LAT...LON 46919302 47429190 47589132 47979056 47968996 47568913 47228862 46488829 45898821 45298854 45398935 45469092 45459252 45839293 46529331 46919302 |
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