Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1631

   Mesoscale Discussion 1631
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0218 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of central/southeast IN into
   southwest/central OH

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151918Z - 152115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging wind are possible through late
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
   from east-central IN into southwest OH, within an area of modest
   surface confluence and theta-e advection. Evolution of afternoon
   convection remains somewhat uncertain in the absence of stronger
   large-scale ascent, but moderate to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of
   1500-3000 J/kg) and marginally supportive effective shear (generally
   25-35 kt per regional VWPs) could support stronger multicells and
   perhaps a supercell, with an attendant threat of hail and locally
   damaging winds. Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely in
   the short term, but will be reevaluated if trends support an
   increase in the potential for multiple severe storms through the
   afternoon.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 07/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...ILN...IND...

   LAT...LON   39718633 40028624 40238322 40058182 39168187 39178253
               39148374 39038524 38978571 39038634 39718633