Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1627

   Mesoscale Discussion 1627
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0523 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

   Areas affected...south-central Texas...including the San Antonio
   metro area

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152223Z - 160030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A localized brief tornado threat may evolve this evening
   in the San Antonio metro area. A watch is not currently expected.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection/isentropic ascent to the north
   of an outflow boundary situated to the immediate south of the San
   Antonio metro area is fostering recurring shower and thunderstorm
   development with some weak rotation evident in radar data. The
   current KEWX VWP, located to the north of the boundary, exhibits
   pronounced veering of winds through the lowest 1 km AGL with
   estimated SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 through that layer. 

   The air mass to the immediate north of the outflow boundary is quite
   moist with dewpoints in the lower 70s, which are largely
   contributing to MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg. However, given the
   cooler boundary-layer temperatures, low-level lapse rates are
   relatively weak, which may limit parcel accelerations in the lower
   part of the storms. Nonetheless, the presence of modest low-level
   shear and a moist/low LCL environment indicates some potential for a
   brief tornado this evening. Given the localized and brief nature of
   the tornado threat, a watch is not currently expected.

   ..Mead/Guyer.. 07/15/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29199881 29559898 29849871 29929831 29879790 29769764
               29439757 29139771 28929827 29199881 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH