Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1626

   Mesoscale Discussion 1626
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0255 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

   Areas affected...portions of northeastern Pennsylvania into New
   Jersey

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151955Z - 152100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts or instances of hail may occur over
   the next few hours. A WW issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery shows convective initiation
   over the higher terrain of the Appalachians. Surface temperatures
   have reached the mid to upper 90s at multiple locations per surface
   observations, suggesting that convective temperatures have been
   breached (per 18Z RAP forecast soundings). 19Z mesoanalysis depicts
   over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE in place amid 40-60 kts of effective bulk
   shear as a 500 mb jet max overspreads upstate NY. These ambient
   conditions would support damaging gusts (perhaps one or two
   exceeding 50 kts) and perhaps an instance of hail if a storm could
   mature. Nonetheless, current visible satellite depict a thick belt
   of smoke overspreading the Hudson Valley into the northeast, which
   may negatively impact updraft strength to a degree. As such, it is
   unclear how strong these storms may become. Given the conditional
   potential for sparse damaging gusts, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   issuance is not currently anticipated, though convective trends will
   continue to be monitored.

   ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/15/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   41837761 41437525 40947432 40527405 40087407 39817444
               39937515 40187590 40527652 40967717 41437761 41837761 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN