Mesoscale Discussion 1625
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026
Areas affected...much of central and eastern Oregon
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 151931Z - 152100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong to severe gusts may accompany the stronger
storms through the afternoon and evening hours. The severe threat
should remain isolated, with a WW issuance not expected.
DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms have recently initiated
atop a well-mixed boundary layer extending up to 600 mb per RAP
forecast soundings. Furthermore, surface observations show 30+ T/Td
spreads across much of OR, especially east of the Cascades,
indicative of efficient evaporative cooling potential for
downbursts. An upper-level south-southwesterly wind maximum is
overspreading this boundary layer, resulting in elongated hodographs
(speed shear) and over 35 kts of effective bulk shear. This vertical
wind shear, and evaporative cooling potential (evident via 1000-1500
J/kg DCAPE), may support strong to severe wind gusts with the
stronger pulse-cellular/multicellular storms. Nonetheless, the
severe threat should remain quite isolated, precluding a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch.
..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...MFR...PQR...
LAT...LON 42762242 44312222 45232179 45712087 45771922 45321798
44471745 43561742 43051760 42741823 42532055 42762242
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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