Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1620

   Mesoscale Discussion 1620
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0740 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

   Areas affected...parts of western/central ND

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533...

   Valid 150040Z - 150215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An increasing threat for significant severe hail from 2-3
   inches in diameter should exist through about 10 PM CDT across parts
   of western to central North Dakota.

   DISCUSSION...Two areas of ongoing convection should intensify during
   the next couple hours across parts of western and central ND. One
   corridor is favored across north-central ND where an arc of
   supercells are ongoing along and behind a southward-sagging front
   that is being augmented by leading convective outflow. Higher-based
   cells along the ND/MT border area have been slower to intensify, but
   should do so as they ingest an increasingly buoyant air mass
   downstream in northwest ND. MBX VWP data has sampled robust mid to
   upper-level speed shear above 700 mb and confirmed by the 00Z BIS
   sounding, yielding effective bulk values around 50 kts. This type of
   wind profile with substantial straight-line elongation will support
   splitting, discrete supercells and potential for significant severe
   hail as activity spreads southeastward this evening.

   ..Grams.. 07/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48930082 48409984 47929931 47649912 47339924 47020040
               47070222 47610348 48110378 48570353 48930082