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| Mesoscale Discussion 1619 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1619
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024
Areas affected...Eastern Ohio into far western West Virginia and
Pennsylvania and far northeast Kentucky
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 142229Z - 150030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Convection within a decaying MCS across OH has shown signs
of re-intensification over the past hour, and a damaging wind threat
may persist for another hour or two. However, this trend is not
expected to persist given an unfavorable downstream environment.
DISCUSSION...Lightning trends and GOES IR cloud-top temperatures
have shown a slight uptick in convective intensity within a decaying
MCS draped from central OH to far northeast KY. Recent surface
observations continue to sample sub-severe winds within this line,
but the MCS appears to be only slightly outflow dominant per recent
radar/velocity imagery. This recent uptick suggests that the MCS may
briefly become more balanced and produce isolated stronger winds
capable of damage. However, this trend is not expected to last long
given limited buoyancy and poor deep-layer shear downstream into PA,
WV, and far eastern KY.
..Moore/Gleason.. 07/14/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...
LAT...LON 39978190 40618190 41198206 41468232 41678224 41988120
42228020 42118002 41707996 41298007 40768018 40248042
39768072 38968132 38548157 38268181 38018221 37908252
37868287 37868327 37988353 38168368 38418363 38448332
38518301 38598280 38768254 39048229 39208221 39978190
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