Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1618

   Mesoscale Discussion 1618
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0911 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

   Areas affected...portions of northern New York into Vermont and New
   Hampshire

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489...

   Valid 150211Z - 150345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe risk continues over WW489. Additional
   supercells and organized clusters moving out of eastern Ontario will
   support a continued severe risk into the overnight hours.

   DISCUSSION...Across WW489, a cluster of severe storms has organized
   over portions of northern NH over the last couple of hours. These
   storms will continue to pose a risk for damaging gusts, hail and
   perhaps a tornado this evening as they move east/southeastward along
   a diffuse baroclinic zone in southern New England.

   Additional, more robust, convection was also noted in eastern ON
   this evening. The environment ahead of these severe storms remains
   strongly unstable (MUCAPE 3000+ J/kg) and sheared. High-res imagery
   from Canadian radars shows a mixed storm mode of supercells and
   organized clusters, which is likely to continue as they approach and
   cross the international border between 0300 and 0400 UTC. Given the
   favorable environment and storm mode, a continued risk for mainly
   hail and damaging winds is expected late this evening into the
   overnight hours. Though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

   ..Lyons.. 07/15/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BUF...

   LAT...LON   44487608 45367446 45147266 44427040 43877018 43467039
               43217069 43127117 43257247 43437322 43687421 44067530
               44487608 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN