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Mesoscale Discussion 1618 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1618 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Areas affected...parts of AZ...southeast CA and far southern NV Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142206Z - 142330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic wind gusts from 50-70 mph and small to marginally severe hail from 0.75-1.25 inches in diameter will be possible with slow-moving storms through early evening. DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing near the higher terrain of southern CA and southeast AZ, as well as along the Mogollon Rim of AZ. A relatively moist air mass characterized by predominately mid 50s to mid 60s surface dew points in lower elevations is supporting a broad plume of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Convection over AZ is occurring with a modest east-southeasterly mid-level flow regime, suggesting that much of the convection will likely parallel the Rim over the next few hours before potentially spreading into the portion of the CO River along the AZ/NV border. Convection across southeast CA is occurring within a weakly sheared, more southerly mid-level flow regime, suggesting that storms will remain quasi-stationary and struggle to appreciably intensify beyond a downburst threat. ..Grams/Gleason.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX... LAT...LON 34020999 32400986 31611008 31311101 31651119 33531153 34631338 34241493 33371594 33101639 33891703 35301608 35921521 36281415 35731329 34020999 |
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