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Mesoscale Discussion 1617 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1617 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0438 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Areas affected...northeast MT and northwest to far north-central ND Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 142138Z - 142315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Initial high-based thunderstorms over northeast Montana should develop into supercells with threats for large hail and isolated severe gusts during the early evening. A severe thunderstorm watch issuance is likely by 22Z. DISCUSSION...Increasingly agitated cumulus is noted near a 1008 mb surface cyclone in the Glasgow vicinity. This corridor is likely to initiate into several thunderstorms during the next couple hours as large-scale ascent increases downstream of a shortwave trough digging over southern AB into SK. Warm-moist sector temperature/dew point spreads of 40-45 F suggest the environment is uncapped and deeply mixed. The 19Z BIS sounding sampled ample speed shear above 700 mb within a west-northwest mid/upper flow regime which will favor high-based supercell development. Initial storms should produce a mix of large hail and severe gusts. Downstream intensification and potentially more widespread coverage is anticipated deeper into the evening as cells impinge on the more air mass, characterized by mid 60s surface dew points roughly along and east of the Lake Sakakawea region of the MO River. An isolated large hail threat may also exist with warm-advection storms along the surface warm front farther east near the international border of northwest to north-central ND. ..Grams/Gleason.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 48440628 48890416 49180178 49120065 48650043 47880123 47170321 46840447 46720541 46820583 47830633 48440628 |
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