Mesoscale Discussion 1617 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 Areas affected...portions of central Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488... Valid 150042Z - 150145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488 continues. SUMMARY...Severe wind and hail will exist with supercells in the short term. However, if upscale growth can occur, then a concentrated severe wind threat may develop in the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Several multicells and supercells have developed over the past couple of hours, with MRMS MESH depicting hail potentially exceeding 2 inches in diameter with some of the stronger supercells. Given well over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear preceding the storms, both severe wind and hail should remain a concern for the next several hours, especially if supercell structures persist. However, storms may merge and grow upscale. Should this occur, an elongated corridor of strong buoyancy and shear precedes the storms across the remainder of central and eastern MT. If the MCS leading line orients more north to south, becoming perpendicular to the deep-layer shear vectors, an organized swath of 50+ kt winds may occur. 75+ mph gusts cannot be ruled out given 8-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, and well over 1500 J/kg DCAPE (indicating efficient evaporative cooling potential). ..Squitieri.. 07/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 47621216 48361059 48830879 48950728 48620612 47830566 47070624 46470768 46130914 45920998 45861045 45891092 47621216 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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