Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1614

   Mesoscale Discussion 1614
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0120 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

   Areas affected...central parts of the Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141820Z - 141945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts are possible through the
   afternoon hours with the stronger wet downbursts. The severe threat
   should be isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Pulse-cellular storms have increased in coverage over
   the last 1-2 hours given strong surface heating (i.e. surface
   temperatures exceeding 90 F, with convective temperatures being
   breached). As the boundary layer continues to mix/deepen through the
   afternoon, additional storms should develop. MLCAPE should exceed
   2000 J/kg on a widespread basis, supporting wet downbursts for the
   stronger thunderstorms. Given PWATs approaching 2 inches, enough
   momentum from water loaded downdrafts may be generated to support a
   couple of damaging gusts. Nonetheless, the severe threat should be
   very sparse, precluding a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/14/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   26898206 28338206 28878193 29198165 29178130 28878096
               27658032 27038020 26468038 26218063 26288128 26618179
               26898206 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH