Mesoscale Discussion 1613
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024
Areas affected...Parts of the Mid Atlantic
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 141656Z - 141930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind is possible this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A couple of strong storms have developed across
southeast PA early this afternoon, within a warm, moist, and
generally uncapped environment. The 12Z IAD/WAL soundings and recent
forecast soundings depict a warm layer around 600 mb that will limit
instability to some extent, but continued strong heating should
allow for MLCAPE to increase into the 1500-2500 J/kg this afternoon.
Low/midlevel flow is generally weak, but somewhat stronger
upper-level flow could allow for some occasional modest storm
organization, and the strongest storms will be capable of producing
isolated damaging wind and small to near-severe hail.
Storm coverage is somewhat more uncertain with southward extent, but
at least isolated development is expected into parts of MD and
eastern VA, where temperatures rising well into the 90s F and
steepening low-level lapse rates will support an isolated
damaging-wind threat with any robust updrafts later this afternoon.
..Dean/Hart.. 07/14/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 38427793 39837661 40987540 41077456 40787409 39797426
38357576 37807645 37537763 37927807 38427793
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