Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1609

   Mesoscale Discussion 1609
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0643 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

   Areas affected...portions of central and southern Arizona

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487...

   Valid 122343Z - 130115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for severe wind gusts continues this
   evening. The highest likelihood for strong gusts is expected to
   remain with the southern storm cluster this evening.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2340 UTC, regional radar and visible imagery
   showed several clusters of thunderstorms ongoing across portions of
   central and southern AZ. The environment ahead of these storms from
   the southern Mogollon Rim and adjacent desert remains unstable
   (SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg) and modestly sheared. Broader storm
   organization appears limited and contingent upon consolidating
   outflow. However, very warm surface temperatures and steep lapse
   rates in the low and mid-levels will favor the potential for severe
   gusts with high-based convection over the entire watch area this
   evening.

   The stronger of the storm clusters across the lower desert has shown
   some tendency to cluster over the last few hours and additional
   development has been noted east of the PHX Metro early this evening.
   Recent measured severe gusts at TUS and high-res guidance suggest
   this cluster will maintain the highest likelihood for severe gusts
   over the next few hours.

   ..Lyons.. 07/12/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

   LAT...LON   31841250 32121316 32731343 35071336 35441328 34991268
               34381210 33871113 33241088 32511062 31601048 31371051
               31301086 31351126 31841250 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH