Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1608

   Mesoscale Discussion 1608
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota...Western Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 140556Z - 140700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and wind damage threat may continue
   for several more hours across parts of southeast Minnesota into
   western Wisconsin. A new weather watch to the southeast of WW 528
   will likely need to be considered.

   DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Minneapolis
   shows a cluster of strong to severe storms over southeast Minnesota
   and western Wisconsin. Most of the storms are multicells, although a
   supercell is ongoing just to the northwest of Minneapolis. These
   storms are located along an gradient of moisture and instability
   that is oriented from north-northwest to south-southeast in the
   vicinity of Minneapolis. The storms are likely being supported by a
   minor shortwave trough that is moving through the upper Mississippi
   Valley. In addition, a maximum in low-level flow is analyzed just to
   the west of this cluster. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Minneapolis has
   0-6 km shear near 50 knots with about 20 knots of speed shear from
   the surface to about 4 km AGL. This, combined with the moderate
   instability, should continue to support a severe threat over the
   next several hours. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be the
   primary threats.

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45299197 45559277 45679338 45659381 45489399 45339400
               45019376 44699321 44419267 44089202 43909172 43869138
               43959104 44219080 44529072 44909111 45299197