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Mesoscale Discussion 1606 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1606 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Areas affected...Northwest to central South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527... Valid 140354Z - 140600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527 continues. SUMMARY...An intensifying MCS is expected to move into central SD in the coming hours and will pose a severe wind threat based on recent observed trends and latest forecast guidance. DISCUSSION...Upscale growth from a cluster of semi-discrete cells into an organizing MCS is well underway across far southwest ND and northwest SD. GOES IR imagery has shown a steady decrease in cloud-top temperatures over the past 30 minutes, signifying an intensification trend. Multiple severe wind reports, including an 87 mph gust in northwest SD, over the past hour or so validate this trend. The developing MCS should continue to organize and intensify as it migrates in a more buoyant air mass downstream across SD (characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE). While severe gusts appear possible along the length of the line, the potential for severe winds, including significant gusts (75+ mph), appears greatest ahead of a surging section of the line over Butte county, SD that is associated with the remnants of a decaying mesocyclone. Latest HRRR solutions appear to have initialized recent observed trends well and suggest the greatest severe/significant wind threat will be associated with this section of the line as it moves southeast into central SD. Downstream watch issuance will likely be needed within an hour to address this concern. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 44670392 44970396 45440365 45860328 46110295 46200264 46200219 45799960 45539910 45099886 44599878 44069889 43679935 43460006 43450070 43640140 43900236 44670392 |
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