Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1606

   Mesoscale Discussion 1606
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0249 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

   Areas affected...southern/central Arizona

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 121949Z - 122145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts are expected this
   afternoon into this evening across parts of southern/central
   Arizona. Trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is noted in visible satellite imagery
   across parts of southeast AZ, with ongoing thunderstorms further
   north along the Mogollon Rim as of 1945 UTC. Steep midlevel lapse
   rates and abundant midlevel moisture are supporting MLCAPE values up
   to around 1000 J/kg. Continued destabilization is expected over the
   next few hours and additional thunderstorm development is expected
   over higher terrain. Midlevel easterly flow around 20-30 kts will
   support convection moving off the higher terrain and across the
   lower deserts through evening. Organized clusters may produce
   isolated strong to severe gusts to 80 mph. A severe thunderstorm
   watch may be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Leitman/Smith.. 07/12/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

   LAT...LON   34421234 33821111 33231018 32270975 31730979 30910988
               31081108 31271234 32341312 33201350 34221351 34521292
               34421234 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH