Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1605

   Mesoscale Discussion 1605
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0227 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

   Areas affected...portions of eastern NM into the TX Panhandle/South
   Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 121927Z - 122130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic strong outflow gusts are possible this afternoon
   into early evening. Overall severe risk is expected to remain
   limited, and a watch is not currently expected.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have gradually intensified this
   afternoon. Initial convection has developed within modest boundary
   layer moisture within an upslope flow regime. Additional
   thunderstorms are developing along southwestward progressing outflow
   from morning convection over southwest OK. Modestly steep midlevel
   lapse rates are supporting around 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, while strong
   heating has allow low-level lapse rates to become quite steep.
   Vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and combined with modest
   instability, should limit overall severe potential. Nevertheless,
   deep boundary layer mixing noted on the 18z AMA RAOB and steep 0-3
   km lapse rates will support potential for strong outflow winds
   through early evening.

   ..Leitman/Smith.. 07/12/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33499978 33370008 33270053 33280172 32990285 32800397
               33280422 34440417 35160374 35750263 35880176 35750151
               34630122 34540114 34080002 33809983 33499978 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH