Mesoscale Discussion 1604
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
Areas affected...portions of Central and South Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121914Z - 122115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Some risk for isolated damaging wind gusts is spreading
southward into Central Florida. A conditional risk for isolated
damaging wind gusts and large hail exists farther south across South
Florida.
DISCUSSION...An ongoing cluster of loosely organized thunderstorms
has continued to spread southward across portions of Central Florida
over the past 1-2 hours and has recently produced a measured 41 mph
wind gust in the vicinity of Titusville along the Atlantic Coast.
Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, the environment south of this
convection remains favorable for isolated damaging wind gusts, with
steep low-level lapse rates, rich moisture, and moderate to strong
instability in place.
Farther south, a developing Cu field is noted across South Florida.
Latest high-res guidance continues to suggest that an isolated storm
or two may develop along the sea breeze over the next couple of
hours. Locally greater moisture and buoyancy are noted across this
area, with up to 3500 J/kg MLCAPE depicted by objective analysis.
Coupled with cooler mid-level temperatures and steeper mid-level
lapse rates (-9.5 C at 500 mb and 7-7.5 C/km, respectively, sampled
by the 12z MFL observed sounding) compared to areas farther north,
this would support a conditional threat for isolated damaging wind
gusts and large hail (perhaps to half-dollar size) with any storm
that does form in this environment.
Given the isolated nature of these threats, watch issuance appears
unlikely at this time.
..Chalmers/Smith.. 07/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 25728005 25618044 25628104 25818171 26398217 26948251
27708284 28078270 28508217 28788128 28808076 28678050
28328039 27858030 27137997 26767987 26147992 25728005
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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