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| Mesoscale Discussion 1604 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1604 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0853 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Montana into western South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525... Valid 140153Z - 140400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525 continues. SUMMARY...Downstream watch issuance into western South Dakota will likely be needed in near future as a cluster of severe thunderstorms continues to organize across southeast Montana. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery continues to show a pair of semi-discrete supercells migrating across southeastern MT. This cluster has recently produced wind damage in Miles City, MT, including a 72 mph measured wind gust. Velocity data from KGGW and KBLX continue to show well pronounced mid-level mesocyclones, but gradual upscale growth remains anticipated as these cells approach the western Dakotas. Storm track trends over the past 30 minutes show this cluster beginning to track more southeasterly as it encounters a buoyancy gradient draped from southeast MT into west-central SD. Continued propagation along this gradient appears likely with a gradual increase in severe wind potential still anticipated. Storm track timing estimates based on the recently observed motion, as well as HRRR timing forecasts, suggest this cluster should reach the SD border between 03-04 UTC, so downstream watch issuance into SD will likely be needed prior to that time. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 45610585 45860597 46090595 46350573 46460544 46540517 46560492 46540450 45600151 45310115 45020099 44690102 44370121 44050144 43770191 43610233 43550279 43590317 43710341 44110398 45610585 |
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