| Mesoscale Discussion 1603 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1603
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
Areas affected...portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the
Southeast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121752Z - 121945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to occasionally severe
thunderstorms may bring a low probability risk for localized
damaging downburst wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...Increasingly agitated cumulus, and a few isolated
thunderstorms, were evident on visible satellite and regional radar
imagery across the lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the
Southeast/Gulf Coast as of 1750 UTC. This activity is located within
a warm and moist low-level air mass to the south of a surface
frontal boundary. Aided by forcing for ascent ahead of a mid-level
shortwave trough, convection is forecast to increase in coverage
over the next several hours, with the greatest coverage likely to
occur where any consolidated cold pools intersect the
inland-progressing sea breeze later this afternoon/evening. Slightly
cooler surface temperatures should yield marginally weaker low-level
lapse rates (relative to areas farther east); however, localized
damaging downburst winds may still occur given PW near 2 inches
across the region. This threat is expected to remain too isolated to
warrant watch issuance.
..Chalmers/Smith.. 07/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 31709145 32139148 32539144 32829129 33029100 33109032
33208924 33298849 33408755 33538649 33668560 33758476
33828427 33668383 33388369 32928362 32568374 32348398
32178434 32038502 31818562 31678617 31428667 31018714
30678752 30438801 30368838 30388874 30488929 30769030
31099105 31379138 31709145
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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