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| Mesoscale Discussion 1603 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1603 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Areas affected...northwest to east-central MN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 524... Valid 140147Z - 140315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 524 continues. SUMMARY...A small cluster with an embedded supercell may evolve into a small bow and move southeastward across parts of central Minnesota tonight. This may yield a confined swath of damaging winds and some hail, with an additional severe thunderstorm watch likely. DISCUSSION...A trio of updrafts persist over northwest MN in Clay and Becker counties, the more prominent of which has been a supercell on the western flank. This specific supercell along the composite front/outflow appears to be developing a substantial enough cold pool for potential acceleration and bowing evolution as it likely tracks along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient to its southeast. The 00Z MPX sounding in the midst of the gradient sampled ample buoyancy and favorable west-northwesterly mid to upper-level flow to support an organized strong to severe wind threat tonight. While low-level flow will remain modest, the degree of warm theta-e advection should be adequate to sustain a small MCS. Latest trends suggest this will likely impact areas along the I-94 corridor into the overnight. ..Grams/Gleason.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 47219543 46679448 46089339 45549295 44959327 44799351 44799384 44869417 45609567 46139636 46599663 47219543 |
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