Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1602

   Mesoscale Discussion 1602
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 121750Z - 121945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorms will spread across portions of
   the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and northern parts of Lake Michigan
   over the next few hours. Isolated large hail and gusty winds are
   possible with this activity, though watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Additional thunderstorms have been showing some
   intensification over Lake Superior as they approach central portions
   of the U.P. This activity is occurring within an area of enhanced
   effective shear focused mainly north of the international border.
   Objective analysis indicates weak capping persists across the
   region. However, a weak to moderate MUCAPE gradient is oriented
   across the U.P. and will support continued southward storm
   development. Vertical shear weakens with southward extent so
   stronger/better organized convection may be short-lived, with storms
   gradually weakening as they shift southward across central portions
   of the U.P. before dissipating near northern Lake Michigan. Given
   isolated coverage and small spatial extent of the overall severe
   risk, a watch is not currently expected.

   ..Leitman/Smith.. 07/12/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...

   LAT...LON   47588653 46608551 45778573 45318654 45538710 45998741
               46588754 47298738 47448715 47548675 47588653 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN