Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1598

   Mesoscale Discussion 1598
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0357 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

   Areas affected...portions of central Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 523...

   Valid 132057Z - 132200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 523
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A narrow corridor of focused damaging winds (perhaps
   severe) may accompany a small bowing segment over the next couple of
   hours. Longevity of this bowing complex however is uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts a small bowing
   complex that has recently materialized over portions of far western
   WI in the past hour. KARX regional radar shows a rear-inflow jet
   present, with inbound velocities approaching 80 kts about 1 km AGL.
   Assuming efficient downward momentum transport, the ongoing complex
   may be producing damaging, perhaps severe gusts in abundance. The
   complex is currently traversing a buoyancy gradient, with MLCAPE
   exceeding 2000 J/kg amid 30+ kts of effective bulk shear. However,
   the ARX VAD profile suggests that vertical wind shear (including
   low-level shear) is not particularly strong, so questions remain
   regarding how long the bow echo complex will last. Nonetheless,
   there is some potential for a continued narrow swath of focused
   damaging winds (perhaps severe, with gusts peaking in the 65-80 mph
   range) over the next couple of hours.

   ..Squitieri.. 07/13/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   44629194 44639114 44299028 43948991 43679016 43629065
               43799132 44009181 44309226 44409229 44629194