Mesoscale Discussion 1597 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Areas affected...Southeast ND...northeast SD...northern/central MN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 132044Z - 132215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may develop by late afternoon or early evening and move southeastward. Large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado or two will all be possible. DISCUSSION...Cumulus is gradually increasing this afternoon from southeast ND into western MN, in the vicinity of a surface low and related surface trough. Rich low-level moisture and rather strong heating are supporting moderate to strong buoyancy, with MLCAPE generally in the 2000-3500 J/kg range per recent objective mesoanalyses. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will be sufficient for storm organization, given the favorable instability in place. Details regarding storm evolution remain uncertain this afternoon, given the presence of multiple surface boundaries and only rather subtle large-scale ascent in the short term. However, most guidance suggests increasing potential for storm development by late afternoon into the early evening from southeast ND into northwest MN, as MLCINH continues to decrease. Initial supercell development is possible, with a threat of hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. A tendency for upscale growth is expected later in the storm evolution, which could eventually result in a southeastward-moving MCS with a continued damaging-wind threat. Timing of the primary severe threat remains uncertain, but watch issuance will become increasingly possible across the region by late afternoon into the early evening. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 47059822 47769581 47839444 47369336 46789323 46219351 45549395 45429501 45569682 45989832 47059822
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1597

13
Jul