Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1596

   Mesoscale Discussion 1596
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0335 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

   Areas affected...portions of southwestern South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 132035Z - 132200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind threat may accompany any
   multicell or supercell that can develop and become sustained this
   afternoon. Given the spatially and temporally constricted nature of
   the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery depicts agitated CU/attempt
   at convective initiation over the Black Hills of South Dakota,
   driven by afternoon peak heating, some orographic lift, and the
   approach of a 500 mb vort max (per 20Z mesoanalysis). RAP forecast
   soundings depict a well-mixed boundary layer extending to 700 mb,
   suggesting that any storms that can become sustained will likely be
   high-based in nature. Forecast soundings show hodographs of modest
   length and curvature (hence 30 kts of effective bulk shear) that
   will gradually enlarge/lengthen through the afternoon, supporting
   multicells and perhaps a few splitting supercells. While some MLCINH
   remains, over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is present, which could support
   strong enough storms to potentially produce large hail and severe
   gusts, especially if a sustained supercell structure can
   materialize. Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain isolated,
   so a WW issuance is not anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/13/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...UNR...

   LAT...LON   44510381 44570372 44580358 44520329 44430291 44240236
               44120217 43840198 43620194 43480228 43460281 43540342
               43630355 43940380 44510381