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Mesoscale Discussion 1595 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1595 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Areas affected...Southeast MN into central WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 132004Z - 132130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may increase through the afternoon, with a threat of isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a brief tornado. DISCUSSION...Some recent intensification has been noted with storms across central WI, and also near the MN/WI to the southeast of the Twin Cities. Both of these storm clusters are located near an outflow-influenced front, with very warm and moist conditions noted south of the effective front across southeast MN and central WI. Convective evolution through the afternoon remains somewhat uncertain, but some increase in storm coverage and intensity will be possible as MLCAPE continues to increase into the 2000-3000 J/kg along/south of the boundary. Effective shear generally ranges from 25-35 kt (greater with westward extent), with some modest increase possible as somewhat stronger midlevel flow overspreads the region through the afternoon. A few stronger clusters and possibly a couple of supercells could evolve with time. Large hail and locally damaging wind would be the most likely hazards, though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out near the boundary. Watch issuance is possible if observational trends continue to support an increase in storm coverage through the afternoon. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 43879201 44049261 44389340 44889418 45139414 45169377 44779273 45189028 45348911 45358831 45138798 44748792 44448818 44218832 43858906 43798971 43789154 43879201 |
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