Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1594

   Mesoscale Discussion 1594
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0642 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

   Areas affected...parts of Northern and Central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483...

   Valid 112342Z - 120145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for isolated severe wind gusts is expected to
   persist this evening. However, the potential for organized cold pool
   development remains uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Mainly pulse-type storm modes have been observed over
   the past 1-2 hours with recurring initiation focused along colliding
   storm-scale outflows and the western extension of a synoptic front
   analyzed across northern OK. Latest objective analysis indicates
   that the strongest instability (MLCAPE of 2000-3000+ J/kg) is
   located over northeast OK in the vicinity of the stalled front,
   where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Both boundary-layer moisture
   content and resultant instability decrease with westward extent;
   however, low-level lapse rates become steeper.

   Regional VWPs indicate deep-layer shear of generally less than 30 kt
   across the area, which should tend to limit the potential for
   organized storm modes. As such, the currently observed pulse storms
   are expected to continue this evening with an associated risk for
   locally severe wind gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail.
   The potential for an organized cold pool capable of more
   concentrated severe wind gusts will be contingent on the favorable
   clustering of storms, which has yet to become apparent.

   ..Mead.. 07/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35249929 35599927 36059849 36769800 36869661 36779580
               36409532 35979540 35479600 35139680 34849795 35249929 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN