Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1592

   Mesoscale Discussion 1592
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1213 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of northern New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 131713Z - 131945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging wind are
   possible this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across
   southern QC early this afternoon, which will continue to aid in
   thunderstorm development through the afternoon across parts of
   northern New England. A few storms have recently developed in
   northern VT, with storm coverage expected to gradually increase
   through the afternoon across the region. 

   Midlevel lapse rates noted on regional 12Z soundings were quite
   weak, but some improvement is possible with time as midlevel cooling
   attendant to the shortwave trough overspreads the region. MLCAPE of
   500-1000 J/kg (locally greater) and effective shear of 30-40 kt may
   support occasional storm organization. Steepening low-level lapse
   rates will support some potential for damaging wind through the
   afternoon, though with low-level flow expected to remain rather
   weak, the wind threat is expected to remain rather isolated. Also,
   small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out with the
   strongest cells.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 07/13/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...

   LAT...LON   47436939 47286796 45596748 44316979 43547093 43327342
               43587389 44277371 44637347 44867314 45207163 47436939