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Mesoscale Discussion 1590 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1590 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Areas affected...ND...far northeast MT...and north-central SD Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 521... Valid 130306Z - 130430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 521 continues. SUMMARY...A sporadic severe hail and strong gust threat may persist into the overnight hours, mainly focused from far northeast Montana across parts of North Dakota into north-central South Dakota. An additional watch is not planned through 05Z. DISCUSSION...Several areas of thunderstorms are ongoing from far northeast MT across parts of ND into western SD. The primary storms of concern for severe in the next hour will be with two widely spaced discrete supercells, one to the northwest of Bismarck and the other east of Glasgow, both of which are along merged outflow boundaries. The northeast MT supercell will likely weaken as it encounters increasing MLCIN from both nocturnal boundary-layer cooling and prior overturning in western to central ND. The south-central ND to north-central SD corridor should be the more favored short-term region for severe within the pronounced MLCAPE gradient and lingering outflow west of a weakening cluster in east-central ND. A modest increase in low-level southerlies has been noted in area VWPs over the eastern Dakotas. Given this displacement to the east of the favored central Dakotas corridor, confidence is low in how long the severe threat may persist overnight as MLCIN further increases. ..Grams.. 07/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW... LAT...LON 48949834 47989762 46799808 46419929 45120014 44320129 44380232 44750270 45530240 46340250 47710519 48260609 48600598 48690523 48430397 48170287 47800135 47880085 48949834 |
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