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Mesoscale Discussion 1587 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1587 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Areas affected...Western Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122157Z - 130000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms spreading west across west/northwest Arizona may produce strong to severe winds over the next couple of hours. Watch issuance is not anticipated given the limited spatial extent of the threat and marginal environmental conditions. DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KESX shows a growing cluster of thunderstorms across west/northwest AZ that appears to be gradually intensifying as it grows upscale based on GOES IR imagery and lightning trends. Velocity data suggest that cold pool amalgamation is underway, with a more cohesive cluster/linear segment likely to emerge across western AZ in the next 1-2 hours. Very hot (100+ F) conditions downstream are supporting dewpoint depressions above 50 F, suggesting a very deeply mixed boundary layer is in place. These low-level thermodynamic conditions are favorable for strong to severe downburst winds within the cluster/segment. Although slightly better buoyancy is also noted downstream towards the CO River, increasing MLCIN with westward extent may modulate the overall intensity and longevity of this threat, resulting in a somewhat narrow corridor of an appreciable severe threat. ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...VEF... LAT...LON 35591260 34881232 34641261 34631375 34771413 35161448 35591451 36081430 36221373 36121317 35591260 |
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