Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1586

   Mesoscale Discussion 1586
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1234 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

   Areas affected...northern Arkansas into western Tennessee and
   northern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 111734Z - 112000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms will develop this afternoon, with
   corridors of damaging gusts possible.

   DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough over MO will move slowly east, with
   enhanced 30-40 kt midlevel westerlies from southern MO/northern AR
   into KY and TN. Also evident on area VWPs are 20-25 kt 850 mb winds,
   overall favoring storm clusters and a few longer-lived cells.

   Visible satellite imagery and surface obs currently indicate a
   boundary near the MO/AR border and extending into western KY, with
   surface convergence and a differential heating zone present. Strong
   heating is generating steep low-level lapse rates ahead of this
   boundary, though cooler air does exist into central KY and Middle
   TN.

   MLCAPE should rise to 2500 J/kg across much of the area, and
   persistent westerly winds should allow some recovery into Middle TN
   later today. Storms will likely develop along the boundary after
   19Z, and spread east/southeast with propagating outflow. At least
   isolated severe gusts appear likely as storms will be coincident
   with peak heating. The strongest storms may produce marginal hail
   for short periods as well.

   ..Jewell/Smith.. 07/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36189413 36309375 36339315 36179052 36398942 36598863
               36628811 36468758 35968711 35398697 35078719 34878775
               34758816 34498934 34379079 34409171 34569273 34889385
               35399436 35739445 36189413 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN