Mesoscale Discussion 1586 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0444 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Areas affected...the northern/central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122144Z - 122315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic and highly localized severe wind gusts will be possible within dry microbursts from northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota into northeast Colorado through sunset. DISCUSSION...Isolated high-based, low-topped convection is underway adjacent to the Big Horns, north of the Black Hills, and into northeast Colorado along a lee thermal trough. Surface-temperature dew point spreads where convection is initiating are around 50-55 F, indicative of a deeply mixed boundary layer over the High Plains. As such, MLCAPE values are largely around the 500-1000 J/kg where convection is forming, but do increase with eastern extent towards the lower plains. This initial activity is expected to struggle to substantially deepen given the airmass, yielded a predominant dry microburst wind threat across the region for the first few hours of development. Moderate northwesterly speed shear within the cloud-bearing layer may promote small hail production in the strongest cores, which could augment downdrafts as they fall. ..Grams/Gleason.. 07/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 44860624 45350520 45210270 44800166 43000163 40150186 39950224 40010280 40490305 43140425 44080647 44860624
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1586

12
Jul