|
Mesoscale Discussion 1583 | |
< Previous MD | |
![]() |
|
Mesoscale Discussion 1583 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Southwest Missouri...Far Northeast Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120638Z - 120845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A threat for isolated large hail will likely continue for a few more hours from southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri and far northeast Oklahoma. The convective cluster is expected to remain too disorganized for watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Over the last couple of hours, scattered thunderstorms have developed across southeast Kansas, with embedded pulse hail events. This activity is located along the eastern edge of a pocket of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The storms appear to be supported by a strengthening low-level jet, that is in the 30 to 35 knot range according the RAP. As this feature continues, thunderstorm development will likely persist. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in far southeast Kansas have 850 to 500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km, and enough deep-layer shear for an isolated large-hail threat. The hail threat is expected continue for a few more hours, before the storm complex gradually diminishes. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37739560 36849546 36519515 36439466 36529416 36789381 37349366 37869369 38329393 38539429 38579466 38549506 38399536 38139555 37739560 |
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home |