Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1581

   Mesoscale Discussion 1581
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0537 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

   Areas affected...Southeastern Arizona into far southwestern New
   Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 102237Z - 110030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have begun to move off the higher terrain
   and into portions of southwestern New Mexico/southeastern Arizona.
   These high-based monsoonal thunderstorms will be capable of some
   damaging wind gusts approaching 60 MPH.

   DISCUSSION...Current radar trends show convection moving
   west-southwest off the higher terrain and into the lower desert
   portions of southeastern Arizona and far southwestern New Mexico,
   where HRRR-based mesoanalsysis indicates a modest amount of buoyancy
   (~1000 J/kg) should support continued convective activity late this
   afternoon into the evening. The 18Z soundings and 2142 UTC
   aircraft-based sounding from Phoenix show hot, dry, and deeply-mixed
   boundary layers in advance of these storms. As a result, these
   storms could be capable of damaging wind gusts around 60 MPH --
   particularly with the strongest downdraft cores, or along any
   interacting outflows. Conditions will continue to be monitored for
   potential watch issuance.

   ..Halbert/Thompson.. 07/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   33521064 33711016 33550936 33310887 33070847 32880820
               32660801 32250793 31780819 31380859 31260897 31290926
               31600989 31921043 32081067 32271084 32441095 32611101
               32991091 33521064 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH