Mesoscale Discussion 1580
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024
Areas affected...Southeastern Kansas into southwest Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 112044Z - 112245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be the primary
threats with storms that can develop along an outflow boundary. A
watch is not anticipated this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Convection from last evening into this morning left an
outflow boundary across parts of southeast Kansas into southwest
Missouri. A subtle surface low is also evident just east of Pratt,
KS in surface observations. Convergence along this boundary has
promoted modestly deepening cumulus over the last few hours. Of
particular note are more agitated cumulus from near Emporia, KS to
south of Eureka, KS. Additional towers are developing northwest of
Springfield, MO. The exact area of where strong/severe storms will
develop is not certain. CAM guidance has generally suggested robust
storm initiation will occur by late afternoon; however, with greater
low-level moisture near the boundary than forecast in models, this
may occur sooner than anticipated.
With weak upper-level support, storm coverage should remain
isolated. Strong buoyancy (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE), effective shear of
25-30 kts, and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of
large hail and severe wind gusts. With temperature-dewpoint spreads
nearing 30 F (primarily in southeast Kansas), some upscale growth
could occur with cold pool mergers. A locally greater severe wind
threat would be present should that occur.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/11/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36929718 37979736 38589764 38869774 38939717 38629520
38229363 37729245 37069241 36729284 36589342 36649467
36929718
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