Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1576

   Mesoscale Discussion 1576
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0252 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

   Areas affected...portions of South/Central Florida and the Florida
   Gulf Coast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 101952Z - 102145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms progressing northeastward along the Gulf
   Coast of the southern/central Florida Peninsula will bring a risk
   for damaging wind gusts over the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Strong heating of a moist low-level air mass (dewpoints
   at or above 70 F across southwest Florida) has resulted in strong
   instability developing across the region (MLCAPE of 3000-3500+
   indicated by latest objective analysis). While deep-layer flow and
   effective shear remain weak, this strong instability coupled with
   steep low-level lapse rates and high PW (around 2 inches) will
   promote the potential for water-loaded downbursts capable of
   occasional damaging wind gusts (and perhaps a localized severe gust)
   as convection evolves northeastward along the southwestern periphery
   of an expansive Bermuda High. Given the expectation for the severe
   risk to remain limited in spatial extent and severity, watch
   issuance is not expected.

   ..Chalmers/Smith.. 07/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

   LAT...LON   27688151 26888083 26768076 26648089 26528115 26298144
               25988168 25888177 25998199 26498228 26898250 27238270
               27418279 27568283 27838292 28008288 28208281 28278264
               28268242 28178208 28018188 27688151 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH