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| Mesoscale Discussion 1571 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1571 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Areas affected...North-central Pennsylvania into central New York Concerning...Tornado Watch 517... Valid 101839Z - 102045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues. SUMMARY...Several discrete supercells in parts of central New York will continue to pose a tornado risk over the next 1-3 hours. DISCUSSION...Several discrete supercells are ongoing along a north-south line just east of Rochester, NY. Low-level rotation has occasionally increases with some of these storms. Overall, storms have not been overly intense, however, as only storms near Lake Ontario have shown higher reflectivity to above 9 km (per MRMS). This may be due in part to somewhat modest mid-level ascent and weaker mid-level lapse rates. Mid-level ascent should at least gradually increase through the day. Further, these storms will encounter increasing unstable inflow air to the east where temperatures have risen into the low 90s F. Some outflow from convection farther east is noted on visible satellite that may eventually impact some of this activity. Farther south into central Pennsylvania, convection has shown some increase in supercell character over the last hour. These storms will also pose a risk for tornadoes, though low-level shear is marginally weaker with southern extent. ..Wendt.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 42207547 41787597 41357710 41087807 41287826 41617806 43017773 43357705 43437608 43207550 42777531 42207547 |
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