Mesoscale Discussion 0157
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025
Areas affected...southeast Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 082123Z - 090000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong storms are expected to develop over the next
few hours, with isolated large hail or gusty winds possible.
DISCUSSION...A weak surface low is present south of the Austin TX
area, where a cold front approaching from the west is intersecting
the southward surging boundary. The eastern portion of the boundary
extends across the Sabine River and into southern LA, with
substantial clouds and cooler temperatures within that zone.
Southerly winds across the warm sector have led to around 1500 J/kg
MLCAPE, with temperatures in the 80s F and dewpoints mixed into the
upper 60s F. Deep-layer shear is robust at over 60 kt, with lengthy
hodographs. Low-level winds are relatively weak, but modest SRH
values exist near the warm advection zone east of Houston.
Visible imagery shows deepening CU fields around Houston, indicative
of a moist deepening boundary layer, and showers are beginning to
show on radar. As the cold front pushes into the area and interacts
with the unstable air mass near peak heating, at least isolated
cells are anticipated. Good lapse rates aloft and strong deep shear
will support hail. A conditional damaging wind or even brief tornado
risk could potentially occur with any storm that remains situated
along the cold front/warm front intersection north/east of Houston,
but any such threat should remain localized.
..Jewell/Bunting.. 03/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX...
LAT...LON 30819565 30979498 30879446 30529426 30179440 29829462
29399504 29169542 28939588 28769627 28869661 29059674
29309674 29769662 29889653 30509606 30819565
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